Why the hype..when there's no fight?

Originally Published in Nevada Examiner September 10, 2010
                                
In a recent U-stream video, Floyd Mayweather Jr. scoffs at accusations that he is ducking Manny Pacquiao. The 5'8" welterweight insists he will "stomp the midget" (aka the 5'6" Pacquiao) and cook him with some “rice with a little bit of barbecued dog" afterwards. The inflammatory comments are first-class fight hype, the sort of talk you would expect from Muhammad Ali in the days when he canvassed the streets of the Philippines claiming he was going to 'kill the gorilla in Manila.'

The only problem is that Floyd and Manny aren't fighting. Make no mistake, the fight that Mayweather seems to be promoting is the fight that everyone wants to see, the fight that everyone would rather see as Pacquiao prepares to face Antonio Margarito and Pretty Boy Floyd continues his most recent, and perhaps IRS-motivated, sabbatical from boxing. But for the second straight year, one of the fighters has walked away from the money (perhaps mountains of it) only to say, 'maybe next year.'

Truthfully, neither man has a lot of 'next year' in him. Mayweather is now 33 and Pacquiao will soon be 32, a far cry from the 25 year-old Sugar Ray Leonard ducking a 23 year-old Thomas Hearns, perhaps the last time that ducking was truly 'good' for a boxing promotion. No, this delay is decidedly bad for any potential Pacquiao-Mayweather clash, and frankly, it's bad for the already financially flagging boxing industry. It's as if the NFC and AFC champions declined to take the field for the Super Bowl but agreed to face each other after the players had all retired. How can anyone take the sport seriously?

And how is a public already sentenced to another year of replacement main events supposed to receive an incendiary hype video for a fight that, at the earliest, would occur next March? Of course, that assumes that Mayweather isn't actually ducking Pacquiao, and there are many legitimate reasons he should.

For one, Pacquiao's punches come from non-traditional and constantly shifting angles. The power puncher, who was once able to put his left fist through guards and knock opponents backwards in the 130 pound weight class, has found a much more artful way to dispense of his opponents at 135 and above; he simply uses his hand speed and movement to put clean punches right on their chins.

As impenetrable as Mayweather's defense is, he does occasionally leave himself open, and he relies on his reflexes and speed to recover. However, both seemed to fail him as he took a heavy overhand from a 38 year-old Shane Mosley in May. Mayweather may be slowing down more than he realizes, and considering Pacquiao throws three punches to Mosley's one, Floyd could end up looking like King Kong fighting a fleet of airplanes. It just takes one lucky pilot to find the chin.

That's not to say that, as time goes by, Manny becomes a clear favorite, far from it. Pacquiao's most celebrated successes at the higher weight classes have come against fighters who are willing to trade punches with him. Mayweather is not that kind of opponent. He's a faster, bigger, smarter and more patient version of Juan Manuel Marquez.

And Manny will slow, just as Floyd has, if not from age, then from the road wear of facing larger and larger opponents. And if an older, slower Pacquiao faces an older, slower Mayweather, it may become obvious how badly Manny needs his speed to penetrate Floyd's defense, and how little speed matters to Floyd's ability to outwait and out-time Pacquiao.

The fight may happen next year. The fight may not happen at all. But what is most clear as Floyd Mayweather simultaneously blasts and ducks Pacquiao on the Internet, is that the fight will not happen in either man's prime. Pacquiao will not defeat the "real" Mayweather, and Mayweather will not defeat the "real" Pacquiao. Two men trying to sell themselves slightly after their expiration date will enter the ring, and the only clear winner will be Father Time. Last I checked, he was undefeated.